He says given the rate at which Chinese forces are modernising and building both capability and capacity, "a Chinese victory over the US is the more likely outcome beyond 2035". Australia is underperforming and leaving itself wide open as longstanding fears look set to come true. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. "The question is really about a force-on-force comparison between China and the US. No doubt Australian passions would run high. "In the case of war with China the questions we need to ask ourselves are: "When I stepped down as the Chief of theDefence Force in July 2002 I had not seen any information leading to the conclusion that an invasion of Iraq was inevitable. America would win because the Australians have been weakened for years by the Emus. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. "Australia's armed forces add very little by way of capability to those of the US. If a conflict were to erupt in east Asia, then the Chinese military is closer to on par with the United States. This means any idea of sustained operations within the Pacific-spanning reach of Chinas ballistic and cruise missiles is likely optimistic. It has additional radars and air defence weapons on outposts in the South China Sea, which extend its IADS zone out even further, although these latter systems can be destroyed by the US. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? "Relatively, we are a small country today and becoming even smaller in comparison to the company we keep. Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. RELATED: It will be bloody: Threat to China. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. As a career strategic analyst and defense planner, including for Australias Defense Department, I have spent decades studying how a war could start, how it would play out and the military and nonmilitary operations that China is prepared to conduct. "It depends. But the definition of ancestral territory appears to be changing rapidly. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. Professor Hugh White, a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence, Admiral Chris Barrie, Australias most senior military leader asChief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002, Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department. And a mountain range makes it hard to reinforce via its eastern shores. Those are easy targets. "America would then have to decide whether to go to war to break the blockade.". China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. All four analysts have held the highest security clearances that its possible to have. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. Some wouldn't survive. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals. But Chinas been preparing to take and hold Taiwan by force for decades. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. The only truly reliable way to counter the threat would be to attack the submarines in port when they refuel and rearm, he writes. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? Space would be the first place both sides would go to strike the others forces in event of a conflict, says Tate Nurkin of the US-based Intelligence Group. "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. According to the late Sir James Plimsoll [in conversation with me], Mao Zedong said to Prime Minister Nehru when the two met in 1954 that, in a war with any adversary China could afford to dedicate 100 million dead. "Would Australia have taken steps to make sure its own intelligence is based on Australian information and assessments? "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. "Australia is never reluctant to support and participate in American adventurism. The war in Ukraine reminds us of how uncertain these things canbe for both sides. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. "The joint facility at Pine Gap would be a very important, indeed crucial, element in US intelligence gathering and in Command and Control. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. Earlier this month, the United States Air Force staged a demonstration involving four heavily armed F-16 fighters. A month earlier, Xi Jinping had told the Peoples Liberation Army: We should persist in using combat to guide our work; step up preparations for war.. Some strategists even use an east-facing map with China at the bottom to show China as being encircled and needing to break out.. Possibly completely different. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. We should not assume it will attempt this.". by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . But it took four vulnerable tanker aircraft to carry them over that 6000km round trip. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. Part 2. The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. Stock exchanges in the United States and other countries might temporarily halt trading because of the enormous economic uncertainties. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. I suspect the US under the current president, Joe Biden, despite his various ambiguous statements, will avoid a direct confrontation with China. "The forces are relatively evenly matched, because USadvantages in technology are balanced by China's advantages in geography fighting close to home. Over the past two decades, China has built formidable political warfare and cyber warfare capabilities designed to penetrate, manipulate and disrupt the United States and allied governments, media organizations, businesses and civil society. Would parallel circumstances that led to the invasion of Iraq be "acceptable" in this case? US forces would be fully committed to the maximum of their capacity, and they would expect and indeed demand the same of us.. Anyone can read what you share. Now it is China. Nationwide News Pty Ltd 2023. Mock attacks will no longer be fake. China-US superpower showdown: military strength Credit:Matthew Absalom-Wong. And all are watching with great interest as the drums of war beat in some quarters regarding a possible war with China. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. In such a scenario, any Australian task force centred on its largely undefended troop transports and limited warship escorts would be under extreme risk. Humans have become a predatory species. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. It has been growing by 6-8 per cent each year for the past five years but according to defence intelligence agency Janes, US spending remains miles ahead at $759 billion. "One can imagine the sociological fracture in Australia with funerals, commemorations, attacks on Australians of Chinese descent, the curtailing of any progressive economic reconstruction agenda for Australia.". What would war with China look like for Australia? These waterways could be used to bottle up Chinese forces. He spent the bulk. The national broadcaster carried out the interviews with "four of Australia's most experienced military strategists" And in a defensive war, China has the enormous advantage of mass, as Stalin demonstrated after the end of 1942.". Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. In 1947 with setting up of the United Nations, after the catastrophes of both world wars and the more limited wars in the intervening years, we tried to build a system of managing international relationships without the recourse to war. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwan's fate will be resolved. Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. Then, it was mainly Germany, and from the 1930s Japan. "When the US closed down Bagram airbase in Afghanistan the Afghan Army collapsed. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. Stavros Atlamazoglou. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. Chinas 1264 warplanes, meanwhile, are based in China. A former US Army lieutenant colonel has warned of a possible "nuclear exchange" if the US breaks out into war with China. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. The map below, compiled from data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is the most accurate nuclear attack map and fallout demonstration available for 2023: (Image courtesy of FEMA and Halcyon Maps) The fallout would rapidly spread, turning targeted cities into whole affected regions. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. Until then, it is important for Washington to avoid provocations and maintain a civil discourse with Beijing. And the West may not be able to do much about it. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) was of marginal utility. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. China is aware of this gap. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. But apart from that, Australia has little military value to the US. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. "But the prospect of war with China raises very different possibilities including for example, the significant likelihood that aircraft, ships and submarines we committed would be destroyed, with the potential for very high casualties among the crews. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States. "Specifically, China would probably favour four principal avenues for marginalising or defeating Australia. The Pentagons latest threat assessment found China has already achieved parity with or even exceeded the United States in several military modernisation areas, including ship building, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defence systems.. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). In the recent parliamentary inquiry into war powers reform, the Department of Defence said it didn't think parliament should have authority to decide our involvement because that 'could undermine the confidence of our international partners as a reliable and timely security partner'. As president, Joe Biden has stated repeatedly that he would defend Taiwan. One of the reasons for that is the land force preponderance of the US over the opposing forces. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . "Melissa Conley Tyler and I (and others) have dealt with the Taiwan question in our joint paper.
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